Albanese eyes becoming Labor's second-longest serving PM. Unless Dutton stops him

The crucible of a campaign tests who has what it takes to be a leader. With less than a week to go, we're starting to see who has passed the test.

Back in early January, Anthony Albanese was standing in a Perth hotel lobby peering at his phone.

"Have a look at this," the prime minister told the ABC, which was accompanying Albanese on a week-long journey across the nation's north and west. An early pre-campaign practice run.

On his screen? A social media post by then president-elect Donald Trump blasting the governor of California for his handling of LA's savage wildfires.

Writing on Truth Social, Trump had just deployed one of his savage nicknames, calling the state's premier "Governor Gavin Newscum".

Albanese appeared stunned.

Especially as the juvenile slur came from a man who would in just over a week return to the White House. Albanese was under no illusions about the fact that their paths would eventually cross.

Days before, he had sent a message directly to Joe Biden offering Australian support for the fire victims.

If the PM was nervous at the thought of one day being on the receiving end of Trump's bullying, he didn't show it.

But there was no mistaking what felt like an ill omen.

Trump lingered over the Australian election even before the campaign began. The surprise — one of many in this election — is that his impact has been nothing like what was anticipated.

Trump's chaotic trade war, abuse of allies and erratic behaviour has not just up-ended global financial markets, it has overturned political assumptions.

Being seen as sympathetic or close to Trump is no longer a political asset.

Managing Trump has become a test for both Albanese and Peter Dutton, two men who have known and opposed each other for decades but now — going into the last week of campaigning — stand on the cusp of making history.

Each in their own unique way.

History is pending

If Dutton pulls off what presently looks like an unlikely victory on Saturday, he will be the first opposition leader to unseat a first-term government since the Great Depression in 1929.

If Albanese lands a majority, he will be the first prime minister to win consecutive victories since John Howard in 2004.

Even more stunningly, should Albanese hold on and serve another year and about six months, he would become the second-longest continuously serving Labor prime minister after Bob Hawke.

If he wins, he will have done so after being written off by some pundits just months ago as terminal and after one of the biggest poll turnarounds this close to an election in memory.

A tracker maintained by The Poll Bludger, which aggregates published polls, shows a dramatic last-minute shift away from the Coalition since late March. NSW, Victoria, WA and SA are all heading Labor's way, while in Queensland the LNP's lead is narrowing. 

The ABC spoke to more than a dozen Labor, Coalition and independent figures — including senior serving politicians as well as recently departed ones, staffers and observers who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity — in an attempt to gauge what Australians have learned about the two men in this campaign.

Albanese has come prepared, fit for battle, after a difficult term in office during which he appeared to lose his way, they say. He is a different man to three years ago when he ran what was widely considered a poor campaign against a deeply unpopular prime minister.

Dutton, by contrast, has fallen short of what it takes to be leader in the crucible of a campaign, they say. He lacks the necessary intensity, and showed up ill-prepared, forced into last minute policy backdowns and retreats, and has struggled to pivot in the face of declining poll support, they report.

If the opposition leader crashes next Saturday, the fallout will be brutal. Already, insiders say he has disappointed true Liberals. And within the party room, he has left a string of unhappy shadow ministers who have seen their policies subject to sudden changes and reversals.

For Albanese, fears of an ugly clash with the capricious US president have opened a pathway to a historic potential second election victory. By demonstrating a steady hand, he has sought to set a contrast to Trump's maelstrom.

For Dutton, Trump's wrecking ball has come at the worst time. It looks to be ending what was until that point a long trail of obliterated incumbent governments. Cost of living pressures meant Albanese was merely the next in line likely to succumb to an angry electorate wanting change.

But polls suggest a hung parliament or Labor majority will be the outcome on May 3, even if past election shocks counsel caution; seven days is a long time in this business.

Values and style

Dutton began his campaign believing it to be a referendum on grievances about Albanese.

Instead, Trump's madness has helped turn it into a contest about values and style. A test of the political centre ground. Perhaps setting voters on a retreat to certainty and away from more change.

"Trump may not be good for democracy, but he's great for social democracy," says Bruce Hawker, a Labor-aligned political strategist and commentator, who reckons the Trump factor in the electorate is so "real you can touch it".

"Dutton knew he was never going to crack through the teal wall because his politics and personality and attitudes are absolutely at odds with everything those members and their electors seem to stand for now.

"Things like the Voice just confirmed he was at odds with the values of those sorts of electorates, so he thought he could do it through the outer suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney.

"And then Trump gets elected and low and behold it's a mess. The last thing Australians want is a second dose of Trump virus.

"Enter Albanese, who has been a steady sort of figure in Australian politics for years," says Hawker.

"Issues like the Voice are behind them and they can start focusing on what they've done in government; helping people with childcare, HECS and home ownership, and they sound sensible compared to the more disruptive shoot-from-the-hip 'we'll have nuclear power in 40 years'."

Trump is by no means the only wildcard of this election.

Albanese has both been lucky and made his own luck by turning up to the start line in fine fettle, ready to campaign with a more disciplined team than his opponent.

He has taken full advantage of his luck. Cyclone Alfred allowed him to demonstrate leadership.

He has sought to maintain a steadfast hand in the face of the trade war and benefited from the fact that no country has been treated better by Trump's trade wolf warriors than Australia. Had others won special treatment, the story could have been very different.

Cost of living continues to weigh down on voters, but Albanese can point to light at the end of the tunnel, including February's Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. Another may come in May.

Even the Pope's death looks to have been advantageous to the prime minister.

Both sides suspended their campaigns on Monday out of respect. In an election battle already interrupted by Easter, school holidays and Anzac Day, Dutton's trailing campaign needs every minute to pull back within reach of Albanese.

Already more than two millions Australians have voted, more than one in 10 out of 18.1 million eligible electors.

Dutton's lack of focus

By contrast Dutton has been both unlucky and deepened his bad luck by failing to prepare and adapt.

His campaign started sluggish and has continued to be dogged by policy reversals and blunders.

The decision to dump plans to end work from home for federal public servants, a poorly explained gas reservation policy, and his reversal this week of a promise to keep Labor's EV tax breaks suggest disorganisation and internal campaign disputes.

He lost focus early in the battle when he mused about living in Kirribilli, signalling he was thinking about harbourside views rather than leading the nation.

Long-standing Coalition insiders are privately aghast at what they see as a woeful campaign.

Journalists rarely see the full picture, but with nose pressed to frosted glass, it's clear this campaign has looked like a shambles from day one.

Last minute disagreements between shadow ministers over policy and a low-energy campaign all hint at a lack of anticipation, poor internal communication and low support for Dutton's fight.

"It's a debacle," says senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs John Roskam, who wrote this week that the Coalition's biggest problem is lack of ambition.

"The fundamental issue with its campaign strategy is the disconnect between what the Coalition claims is the scale of the problem facing the country and the solutions that it's offering," he wrote.

"A cost-of-living crisis, falling living standards, and a trillion dollars of gross debt would normally prompt, from an opposition, not a tinkering at the edges but an ambitious reform agenda."

A former Coalition minister says Dutton still has cut-through as a communicator. But he lacks support when faced with setbacks, such as his decision to fly to a Justin Hemmes harbourside mansion fundraiser as Cyclone Albert bore down on Queensland.

"When he was bashed up — like in the fundraiser, or living in Kirribilli, or the share portfolio — there was nobody who leapt to his defence," they said. 

"There's no one throwing haymakers or punches. There's been a lack of policy, and the ones they have produced haven't filled out the gaps, like on nuclear, or on gas, or they've left it too late, like defence."

"There is no one under him, who's looking to make the case on policy or having prepared the case on policy."

Albanese's promise

Leaders are born and bred in a multitude of ways. Albanese's rise to the top job surprised many of his closest and most loyal long-term supporters who remember a scrappy young man from modest background who mastered the art of internal Labor politics.

When he became prime minister in May 2022, Albanese would publicly express astonishment at where a kid from public housing had landed.

"A poor boy from a poor background, even after he won the last election, he was pinching himself," said one close associate.

"Since then, he's grown."

Australians have for the best part of two decades become accustomed to prime ministers immolated in the tumult of politics, either through their own failings or because of those internally who sought to destroy them.

If he wins on Saturday, Albanese will be the first PM since John Howard to show signs of settling in — in cricket terms — for a longer stint at the crease.

Like Howard after his 1996 win, Albanese has had a rough first term, full of mistakes, missteps and blunders.

But survival — if it happens on May 3 — offers him an opportunity to build on the lessons learnt.

The prime minister's promise to the Labor party when he took over its leadership after the disappointment of 2019 was that he would win consecutive elections, laying the groundwork for long-term Labor changes that cannot be reversed.

Albanese is unlikely to declare "mission accomplished" at that point, say those who know him, and he will be eager to deploy new-found confidence to "govern according to our principles".

"The job of being PM is completely different to any other experience you've had leading up to it," says veteran Canberra observer Ben Oquist.

"It's all the skills that you've got together — even if you've been a senior minister — and then you get there and you have to start again from zero and learn a lot of lessons on the job."

"The level of decision, delegation, the level of storytelling and narrative you have to do compared to other jobs. Taking the community with you. There are all these things, and I don't know half of them, that you can only learn on the job."

Time in the job, in other words, has value, especially in a world that looks increasingly challenging.

Geo-strategic analysts believe the current global tensions are on par with the lead up to World War II. Australia's structural fiscal vulnerability remains unresolved. Living standards are under pressure.

Whether Australians see value in retaining a leader who has shaken off the L-plates remains to be seen. But one of the reasons Dutton may fall short, is that they were looking for a greater reason to back him than the opposition leader has given them.

Unity at what cost?

Dutton's success, say Coalition figures, has been in keeping the party together after the drubbing of 2022, which saw the Liberal Party lose a swathe of "crown jewel" seats to the teal independents.

His support base emanates from the conservative Queensland LNP, even if it comes at the expense of the Liberal Party's desire elsewhere to re-establish a broad church.

There is much criticism of Dutton's failure to ready a more ambitious or determined set of policies. But, insiders say, by shunning that work, he was able to unify the Coalition by avoiding ugly internal fights over what direction to take.

That clearly has a short-term benefit. It kept the attention on Labor, and its struggles. But once the campaign began, it left him — as The Australian's cartoonist Johannes Leak portrayed him on Friday — in charge of a "half-bakery" stocked with "pies in the sky", "policy turnovers" and "ham fists".

Dutton has no obvious strong internal competition, but his future as leader hinges on how far he climbs the 20-seat mountain the Coalition needs to conquer before it can win.

Some have told the ABC that if he claws back no fewer than 10 or 11 seats on Saturday, his position would be safe. For the short-term at the very least.

But if he falls short, winning only a handful of net gains on May 3, his future as leader may come under pressure from figures such as Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie.

Despite the dire polling numbers, Labor knows it doesn't have him beat yet.

'Damp fart of a campaign'

Dutton's strengths are a history of winning tough suburban contests, primarily his own seat of Dickson, which has always been a marginal electorate.

His travels have focused, in recent days, on a slew of outer-suburban electorates. He has sought to make a virtue of his history as a junior treasury minister under John Howard — implying budgetary experience — and his career as a police officer.

The surprise of the campaign is that he appears to be a reluctant self-promoter. He seems ill at ease doing the kind of bread-and-butter campaign stunts that other politicians embrace.

The only vaguely memorable imagery of his election trail has been an endless procession of petrol pumps, backdrops for his promise to cut fuel excise.

And as the heat rises, with polls heading Albanese's way, Dutton has at times looked impulsive. He ditched his promise in early January to shun budgetary "sugar hits" in favour of handouts to motorists and first-home buyers.

"It's been a damp fart of a campaign for him," said one neutral observer.

While the wheels came off late in Mark Latham's ill-fated 2004 campaign against John Howard, Dutton's "been a bit of a train wreck since day one", said another. "I'm surprised".

Part of the problem has been the apparent unpopularity of his nuclear power plan. The bold policy is rarely mentioned by Dutton or in the Coalition's campaign material.

"Part of the problem is the so-called Newspoll factor," says Hawker.

"For 18 months or more Newspoll had them in a strong position and they thought they could coast into government on the back of public opinion and interest rates, and not having to come up with a serious policy offering that the electorate can feel and touch."

"You can't get away with that."

A week is a long time

Dutton may yet pull off an election miracle. A large number of voters are still undecided, even at this late stage.

The Coalition is planning a major campaign blitz in the final days of the race to win over those voters. Third-party movements are also in the mix. Preference flows may matter more than ever, creating the potential for genuine surprise outcomes.

Reports of anger in the suburbs means inner-city pundits may be missing the real story.

But on the present trajectory, Albanese is in the box seat to hold his job.

He is under no real political or media pressure. His agenda is established and well-known. It says "tax and spend" on the Labor tin and he's delivering.

Even traditional critics acknowledge his momentum. Editor-in-chief of The West Australian Chris Dore, speaking at a breakfast event in the PM's presence on Thursday, described Albanese's campaign as "brilliant so far".

"On the other side Mr Dutton has been stuck in quicksand and in danger of becoming an asterisk in history.

"The contrast between your campaign and his couldn't be greater. You are prepared… you are confident… and you are shameless. You want to win and you're acting like it."

Dutton's daily press conferences are much more combative and challenging. The press pack has morphed from rival sole traders to a group of coordinated hyenas.

One Liberal greybeard says Albanese's campaign is a reminder that he can never be underestimated.

"He's good at finding the weak spots of opponents and exploiting them… in a way that doesn't come across as too nasty, even though I think he's quite nasty," they said.

"He's retained some sort of glow. He's a goodish guy."

By contrast, Dutton appears to have been "a bit seduced by his personal backstory" says the same person. "And it's just not that interesting. I get it, he's a worthy citizen, and copper and the guy flips properties".

But voters want to "know you're competent and can do the job".

"Unless and until you clear that hurdle, the other stuff doesn't carry you across the line."

Whatever the outcome on Saturday night, the cold hard truth is Dutton has had a woeful campaign. 

It’s been so poor that it threatens to obscure the fact Albanese has outperformed the opposition leader at almost every step.

Credits

Words: Jacob Greber

Photographs: Brendan Esposito, Ian Cutmore, Nick Haggery, Adam Kennedy

Illustration: Lindsay Dunbar

Editor: Leigh Tonkin